strata memo

The Strata Memo

Supply chain

Mining is only the first step. Many critical minerals are bottlenecked later, in processing, refining or making metal and magnets. This map shows where, for each of the 60 minerals, based on sourced quotes. Hover or focus a dot for the claim.

Minerals with a flagged bottleneck43of 60
Flagged stages78where one country dominates or the U.S. relies on imports
Stages with a sourced row336of 360 mineral-stage cells

Bottleneck map

bottleneck shown sourced, none shown no sourced data yet

Source: The Strata Memo, curated from USGS and other official sources, Value chain by stage (checked quotes) (source dates 2020-04-24 to 2026-10-30)

Export controls and trade measures

A timeline of the export bans, licenses and quotas that governments have put on critical minerals, and the trade deals and tariffs around them. Click or focus a mark for the quote and source.

Show
Timeline of export controls and trade measures
DateWhoTypeWhatMineralsSource
2029GabonUpcoming dateUpcoming: Gabon's manganese ore export ban takes effect (planned)ManganeseUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
10 Jan 2027United States and ChinaUpcoming dateUpcoming: reported new end of the U.S.-China truce and the rare earth suspensionCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 14 moreMainrich International + 1 more
1 Jan 2027United StatesUpcoming dateUpcoming: defense contracts bar magnets made from Chinese-mined or processed materialCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreRare Earth Directory
27 Nov 2026ChinaUpcoming dateUpcoming: suspension of the U.S.-specific licensing rule endsGallium, Germanium, AntimonyRare Earth Directory
10 Nov 2026ChinaUpcoming dateUpcoming: suspension of the October 2025 measures ends on 10 November 2026 (reportedly extended)Europium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium and 3 moreRare Earth Directory + 1 more
25 Sep 2026United StatesAgreement or statementWhite House fact sheet on the Xi state visitCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreThe White House + 1 more
24 Sep 2026United States and ChinaAgreement or statementU.S. Treasury says the truce now runs to 10 January 2027Cerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 14 moreInvestorNews + 1 more
17 May 2026United StatesAgreement or statementWhite House fact sheet after the Beijing summitYttrium, Scandium, Neodymium, IndiumThe White House + 1 more
Feb 2026ZimbabweExport banZimbabwe suspends exports of raw mineralsLithium, Platinum, Palladium, Iridium and 3 moreAfrican Climate Wire
14 Jan 2026United StatesTariff or trade measurePresidential proclamation under Section 232 on processed critical mineralsall critical mineralsThe White House
6 Jan 2026ChinaExport banChina bans dual-use exports to Japanese military usersCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreRare Earth Directory
Jan 2026ZimbabweExport taxZimbabwe introduces tiered export taxes on lithiumLithiumAfrican Climate Wire
2026ChinaLicense requirementSilver export licensing (effective 2026)SilverUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
10 Nov 2025United StatesSuspension or liftU.S. suspends the affiliates rule and Section 301 shipbuilding actions for one yearall critical mineralsThe White House + 1 more
9 Nov 2025ChinaSuspension or liftChina suspends the U.S.-specific licensing ruleGallium, Germanium, AntimonyRare Earth Directory + 1 more
7 Nov 2025ChinaSuspension or liftChina suspends the October 2025 measures for one yearEuropium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium and 3 moreRare Earth Directory + 1 more
1 Nov 2025United StatesAgreement or statementWhite House says China will issue general licensesCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 16 moreThe White House + 1 more
30 Oct 2025United States and ChinaAgreement or statementU.S.-China strategic agreement on rare earth export controlsCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
28 Oct 2025United StatesAgreement or statementU.S.-Japan framework for securing critical minerals and rare earthsall critical mineralsThe White House + 1 more
26 Oct 2025United StatesAgreement or statementU.S.-Malaysia critical minerals MOUall critical mineralsThe White House + 1 more
26 Oct 2025United StatesAgreement or statementU.S.-Thailand critical minerals MOUall critical mineralsThe White House + 1 more
24 Oct 2025United StatesOtherCommerce sends the Section 232 critical minerals report to the Presidentall critical mineralsThe White House
20 Oct 2025United StatesAgreement or statementU.S.-Australia critical minerals frameworkall critical mineralsUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
16 Oct 2025Congo (Kinshasa)QuotaCobalt export ban lifted; quotas startCobaltBenchmark Minerals + 1 more
9 Oct 2025ChinaLicense requirementChina widens controls: five more rare earths, battery materials, foreign-made products, technologyCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 14 moreRare Earth Directory + 1 more
22 Sep 2025Congo (Kinshasa)QuotaARECOMS announces cobalt export quotasCobaltMiningWrap + 1 more
1 Aug 2025United StatesTariff or trade measureSection 232 tariffs on semi-finished copper take effectCopperThe White House + 1 more
22 Jul 2025United StatesAgreement or statementU.S.-Indonesia reciprocal trade frameworkall critical mineralsUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
10 Jun 2025ZimbabweAnnounced for laterZimbabwe announces a lithium concentrate export banLithiumAfrican Climate Wire
Jun 2025Congo (Kinshasa)Export banCobalt export ban extended three monthsCobaltUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
Jun 2025GabonAnnounced for laterGabon announces a manganese ore export ban from 2029ManganeseUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
15 Apr 2025United StatesTariff or trade measureExecutive Order 14272 starts a Section 232 critical minerals investigationall critical mineralsThe White House + 1 more
4 Apr 2025ChinaLicense requirementSeven rare earths need an export licenseDysprosium, Gadolinium, Lutetium, Samarium and 3 moreRare Earth Directory + 1 more
28 Mar 2025United StatesAgreement or statementU.S.-Japan critical minerals agreementLithium, Cobalt, Nickel, Graphite and 1 moreUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
Feb 2025ChinaLicense requirementExport controls on bismuth, indium, molybdenum, tellurium and tungstenBismuth, Indium, Tellurium, TungstenUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
Feb 2025Congo (Kinshasa)Export banCongo (Kinshasa) bans cobalt exportsCobaltUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
Feb 2025United StatesAgreement or statementU.S.-Philippines reciprocal trade frameworkNickelUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
1 Jan 2025United StatesTariff or trade measureUSTR raises Section 301 tariffs on Chinese tungsten products to 25%TungstenUSTR press release + 1 more
2025MalawiExport banMalawi bans all raw mineral exportsCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreAfrican Climate Wire
2025MalaysiaExport banMalaysia bans raw rare earth exportsCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
2025MoroccoLicense requirementMorocco requires licenses for refined copper and aluminum ingot exportsCopper, AluminumUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
2025South AfricaLicense requirementSouth Africa requires permits for chromium ore exportsChromiumUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
3 Dec 2024ChinaExport banChina bans exports to U.S. military users and tightens licensing for the U.S.Gallium, Germanium, AntimonyRare Earth Directory + 1 more
Aug 2024ChinaLicense requirementAntimony export restrictions announcedAntimonyUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
2024ChinaLicense requirementChina licenses magnesium material exportsMagnesiumUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
2024LaosExport banLaos bans raw mineral exportsCopper, Nickel, Potash, Silver and 1 moreUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
2024VenezuelaExport banVenezuela bans exports of bauxite, cassiterite, columbite-tantalite and other raw mineralsAluminum, Tin, Niobium, Tantalum and 3 moreUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
Dec 2023ChinaExport banBan on rare earth magnet-making technology exportsCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreRare Earth Directory + 1 more
Oct 2023ChinaLicense requirementGraphite export licensing announcedGraphiteGlobal Trade Alert (SGEPT) + 1 more
1 Aug 2023ChinaLicense requirementGallium and germanium export licensing beginsGallium, GermaniumRare Earth Directory + 1 more
10 Jun 2023IndonesiaExport banIndonesia bans bauxite ore exportsAluminumIndonesia Business Post + 1 more
Jun 2023NamibiaExport banNamibia bans exports of unprocessed critical mineral oresCobalt, Graphite, Lithium, Manganese and 16 moreMining Technology + 1 more
2023IndonesiaOtherIndonesia restricts copper concentrate exports, with relaxation for two firmsCopperIndonesia Business Post + 1 more
2022RussiaExport banRussia restricts exports of tungsten scrap and enriched uraniumTungsten, UraniumUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
2022ZimbabweExport banZimbabwe bans lithium ore exportsLithiumUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
2020ChinaOtherChina adopts its Export Control Lawall critical mineralsGlobal Trade Alert (SGEPT)
2020IndonesiaExport banIndonesia bans nickel ore exportsNickelUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book) + 1 more
2017TanzaniaExport banTanzania bans ore concentrate exportsCopper, Nickel, SilverUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
2015ChinaSuspension or liftChina ends rare earth export quotasCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreGlobal Trade Alert (SGEPT)
2012VietnamExport banVietnam restricts raw material exportsChromium, Lead, Zinc, Manganese and 17 moreUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (whole book)
Sep 2010ChinaOtherRare earth shipments to Japan stallCerium, Dysprosium, Erbium, Europium and 12 moreRare Earth Directory

How this was cross-checked

  • 61 events, each with a verbatim quote that is checked against the saved source page every time the site is built.
  • USGS Table 4 (export controls by country, the 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries) was read entry by entry: 36 entries, 9 of them for commodities outside the 60 critical minerals. All 111 country, mineral and year pairs for the 60 minerals are matched by an event here (0 missing). USGS gives only the year of implementation, so month and day come from the chapters and the sources below.
  • Independent sources were read for exact dates, the November 2025 suspension and events after USGS's November 2025 cutoff: African Climate Wire, Benchmark Minerals, Global Trade Alert (SGEPT), Indonesia Business Post, InvestorNews, Mainrich International, Mining Technology, MiningWrap, Rare Earth Directory, The White House, USTR press release. Where sources differ the event says so (for example, the year of Indonesia's nickel ore ban).
  • What this is not: a complete register. Sources we could not open (a USITC working paper returned 403; a McCarthy Tétrault note returned 429) are logged and not worked around. Rule changes after the dates above, and measures by countries we did not search, may be missing.

Who supplies it, and U.S. responses

Supplier concentration, U.S. tariffs, policy actions and supply events, as stated by USGS and other official pages.

Who supplies it

China made almost all of the world's primary low-purity gallium in 2025.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Gallium (2026-02)

China was still the leading producer and exporter of germanium metal in 2025.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Germanium (2026-02)

China produced an estimated 82% of the world's natural graphite in 2025, and was the leading source of U.S. imports of graphite anode material (55%).

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Graphite (natural) (2026-02)

China was the world's leading producer, importer and consumer of tungsten concentrates.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Tungsten (2026-02)

Congo (Kinshasa) supplied an estimated 73% of mined cobalt in 2025, and China was the leading refiner.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Cobalt (2026-02)

U.S. tariffs and duties

After a December 2024 petition, Commerce set preliminary antidumping duties of 93.50% and countervailing duties of 11.58% to 721.03% on graphite anode material from China.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Graphite (natural) (2026-02)

USTR raised Section 301 tariffs on certain Chinese tungsten products to 25% from 1 January 2025; USGS's tungsten chapter reports 50%, the rate USTR applied to solar wafers and polysilicon.

Source: USTR press release, USTR Increases Tariffs Under Section 301 on Tungsten Products, Wafers, and Polysilicon, Concluding the Statutory Four-Year Review (2024-12)

U.S. policy and funding

In 2025 the Energy Department announced up to $6 million for U.S. gallium research, and the Defense Production Act Title III funded a $29.9 million demonstration plant in Louisiana to recover gallium and scandium.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Gallium (2026-02)

A $29.9 million Defense Production Act Title III award in November 2025 supports a Louisiana demonstration plant that will recover gallium and scandium from industrial waste.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Gallium (2026-02)

In August 2025 the Energy Department announced investment initiatives worth $1 billion for domestic critical-mineral supply chains, including germanium.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Germanium (2026-02)

The Department of War conditionally awarded $80 million to an Idaho company building an antimony mine to restart a domestic source.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Antimony (2026-02)

Several tungsten projects in the United States and Canada received Defense Production Act Title III awards.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Tungsten (2026-02)

In 2025 the United States asked for bids to buy 7,480 tons of cobalt for the National Defense Stockpile over five years, then cancelled the solicitation before year end.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Cobalt (2026-02)

Executive Order 14285 (April 2025) called for developing seabed mineral deposits to help secure critical minerals such as nickel.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Nickel (2026-02)

In 2024 the Department of War awarded $19.6 million in Defense Production Act Title III financing to a California company piloting magnesium from brines.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Magnesium metal (2026-02)

Supply events

The last U.S. primary nickel refinery closed in 1985.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Nickel (2026-02)

The only U.S. primary magnesium smelter filed for bankruptcy in September 2025, after primary production had stopped in 2022.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Magnesium metal (2026-02)